Its been far too long since I wrote on here;
I really can't wait to finish uni so I can make this a regular thing.
However, winter appears to be over. The first daffodils are coming out and spring looks like its finally arrived.
This means several things: longer days; brighter, happier weather; and the final straight of the Premier League season.
10 weeks from now and we will be in the middle of May, hotly anticipating the Euro's and, even more so, August, when the whole thing kicks off again. Right now though, the league table is starting to take shape, and all twenty teams know the position they are fighting for.
Forget the title; that's a two-horse race.
Third? Spurs should have that all sewn up.
The relegation battle will probably go all the way to the wire again. Terrible for the teams involved, but it makes it much more exciting for the neutral.
The position I'm interested in right now is fourth. The coveted final Champions League spot. An inconveniently placed two-legged qualifier is required, but its a small price to pay to compete in the world's best club competition.
Looking good for fourth right now are Arsenal. They beat Liverpool at Anfield on Saturday, and Chelsea lost to West Brom to give the Gunners a tiny bit of daylight in the shape of three points between themselves and the fifth-placed Blues.
We all know who is responsible for turning Arsenal's season around from the disappointment, and dare I say, humiliation of August.
The man they signed from Feyenoord in 2004 was never really a prolific scorer, but van Persie's class was still clear to see, highlighted even further in that goal against Charlton.
Robin Van Persie
Although he has suffered various injuries, he came back halfway through last season, finishing the 2010/11 as the top league goal scorer of 2011 so far, an achievement he continued throughout the current season, finishing 2011 with 35 league goals.
This season, he's on 31 overall for Arsenal. 25 of these have come in the league, which is not bad going considering he's only started 26 games, and was introduced as a substitute against Stoke in October (he came on and scored twice). Going back to Arsenal's most recent game, the 2-1 away victory over Liverpool, it needn't be said that van Persie scored both goals. It was this game that led me to this post: Where would Arsenal be without RVP?
Many people have called Arsenal a one-man team, a phrase I'm not too keen on using, especially after Szczesny's performance at Anfield, amongst other key players for the Gunners.
But how far does the assessment 'one-man team' actually tell true? A quick indicator takes away any Premier League goal this season where van Persie has had a direct influence (either scored or provided an assist). After doing the research, the results are rather astonishing. Simply put, Arsenal wouldn't be far off a relegation scrap.
Without van Persie's contributions this season, Arsenal would have surrendered almost half of their points. Currently on 49 points in fourth spot, they would actually be in the lowly position of 15th, below Aston Villa, on 28 points.
Wins against Stoke, Everton and QPR would become draws (6 points dropped), losses against Manchester United, Blackburn and Swansea would become heavier losses, and worst of all, wins against Sunderland, Chelsea, Norwich, Villa and Liverpool would become losses (15 points dropped).
Without taking Goal Difference into account, the current table reads like this:
Current Premier League table (as of 05/03/2012)
The revised league table, however, provides a drastic change:
Potential Premier League table, minus goals directly influenced by Robin van Persie.
Fortunately for Arsenal fans, the former table is correct, and Arsenal do have van Persie in their squad. Unfortunately, his contract has little over a year remaining, meaning one of several possibilities:
Either the club breaks it's wage structure in order to keep him, he stays for the next four-plus years, likely winning little or no silverware; he foresee's he is unlikely to win a trophy, doesn't agree a new contract and they sell him in the summer/January to try and make some money from him; or he doesn't agree a new contract and they keep him until it expires, at which point lose him for nothing.
The day van Persie leaves the Premier League will be a sad day for English football, but other than a move to the obvious interested party Manchester City, is there anywhere else in the country that could afford him? The only other big-spender is Chelsea, who seem to be more of a sinking ship than Arsenal at the moment. This leaves a move abroad this summer as a seriously viable option, where he is more likely to win something, perhaps even the Champions League if he transfers to one of the Spanish big-two.
I understand it is very simplistic to concentrate solely on the goals he has directly influenced in an attempt to evaluate Arsenal's season so far. However, there is and never will be an accurate way to measure one players influence compared to how the team would have fared without him in the same games.
There are also a lot of teams in the current league that, their star player's input removed, will be in a much different situation, but I believe this to be the case for Arsenal much more than any other team.
Just what would they do without him? I've got a feeling we'll be finding that out sooner rather than later.
Follow me on Twitter: @philbeck10
